Russia is getting extremely violent in "near abroad", as China rises
Peter Richardson
On December 10th the summits of two Russian dominated regional organizations – Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), were held in Moscow. Both meetings are the latest in a row of Kremlin's continuing attempts to restore its empire. Moscow has come up with new initiatives to revitalize these otherwise declining structures. It has proposed to sign a free trade agreement within the CIS framework to replace the mountains of useless documents. Russia also called to expand CSTO's role by giving a right to intervene in case of domestic turmoil in member-states.
Moscow's initiatives are nothing more than a tricky adjustment to its flawed and obsolete strategy – to subordinate the CIS states to Russia by tying them up through economic and military means. This time the driving force behind Russian intensified efforts is not its notorious paranoia about the US "encroachment" to its "backyard", but a serious geopolitical challenge it faces as a result of China's rising power.
For nearly 20 years Moscow has been engaged in pointless and misjudged rivalry with the US over the influence in the CIS. The Russian political elite still consider the United States as the main threat to a very existence of their state. Such a paranoid security mindset was partly shaped by Brzezinski's famous book "The Grand Chessboard" that calls for containment of Russia's resurgence by supporting its ex-colonies and dividing Russia itself into three separate economic entities. It is not clear to what extent the US policymakers were influenced by Brzezinski's ideas, but for Russia any US involvement in the CIS meant a "zero-sum game". Kremlin kept barking like a mad dog to protest any US initiative in this part of the world.
Extremely suspicious and heavily occupied with the perceived threat from the United States, Russia lost a sight of China. Beijing masterfully used Moscow's paranoia to advance its own economic interests in post-Soviet space. Now Chinese economic presence in the CIS, especially in Central Asian countries, is much stronger than Russia's. It was too late, when Moscow realized how formidable Chinese challenge has become.
A few people would argue that the rise of China has shaken the world. Its thirst for natural resources and rising export of manufactured products are the most important phenomena, reshaping today's global politics and economy. Chinese strategists are conscious of the fact that secure and stable supply routes of energy, bypassing the US controlled sea lines, is vital to sustain economic growth. Therefore, access to Middle Eastern oil resources through Central Asian land mass remains critical to China's future. Realization of this strategy requires from Beijing building up strong political and economic ties with Central Asia by cutting down the Russian grip of the region.
Beijing has been extremely successful in implementing this plan. It has offered large credits and investments to Central Asia that others could not. China has become the main export market for Central Asian commodities, lessening their dependence on Russia. Bilateral trade has skyrocketed in the last few years.
Any Russian uneasiness about its involvement in Central Asia Beijing was able to soften by giving a lip support to Moscow's anti-American rhetoric. The best illustration of that was an establishment Shanghai Cooperation Organization - a new platform for Moscow to continue barking at the US, assuming that China was on his side. But China regarded Russia like a naughty child, who lacks the maturity to exert self-control.
Nevertheless, China's striking advancement to Central Asia at the peak of global financial crisis came like a "cold shower" for Russia. In 2009 China lent $15 billion dollar to Kazakhstan in exchange for massive shares in its oil fields and mineral resources. The same year Beijing agreed to lend Turkmenistan $4 billion to develop its largest gas field and pledged over $1 billion in investments to build power plants, electricity grids and roads in Tajikistan. In 2010 Beijing signed a deal with Kyrgyzstan to build a $342 million electric grid link. China also announced a loan of $10 billion to Central Asian countries to support them during the global recession.
As a part of its anti-crisis strategy Beijing has announced plans to reduce economic disparities between coastal and inland regions by strengthening the latter's trade and transport links with Central Asia. It coincided with the construction of the world's longest gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China. It was the biggest blow to Russian geopolitical influence in Central Asia, ending Moscow's decades-long monopoly over exporting energy resources from the region. Now just one step left for China to accomplish its main geopolitical ambition – to get a land access to Middle East.
Since financial crisis has totally devastated Russia's resource dependent economy, it finds itself in no position to counter China. In fact, to cover up expanding budget deficit, Moscow itself asked Beijing for multi-billion dollar loan in exchange for long-term oil supplies.
Russia did try various ways to stop Chinese advancement in Central Asia. It has blocked any Beijing's initiatives to create a free trade zone within SCO. Instead Moscow attempted to establish its own free trade area with Central Asian states - Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC). But efforts to bring the trade bloc to life drastically failed. A shortened version of this "adventure", EurAsEC Customs Union, is facing the similar fate. No doubt the expanded version – a free trade agreement within the CIS – may not even see its birth.
Waning Russia's economic, as well as cultural, influence in Central Asia leaves Moscow with only one option – to exercise a military control over the region under the pretext of "ensuring" security. Until 9/11 Moscow had heavily exploited "Taliban threat" to coerce Central Asian states to join the CSTO and host Russian military bases, but today this boogeyman is not working. So what Russia is trying to do now is to provoke Central Asian states against each other. Russian propaganda machine is aggressively circulating this idea.
The most alarming is Russia seems to be willing to provoke a real conflict. There are very serious indicators that the recent ethnic conflict in southern Kyrgyzstan, which left hundreds of people dead and many thousands wounded, was masterminded by Kremlin. Now Russia is using the conflict in Kyrgyzstan as an excuse to strengthen its military presence and political control over Central Asia. It is exactly for this aim Russia is proposing to use CSTO to solve intra-state problems.
It is well-known, how skilful Moscow is in creating internal problems to his neighbors. And now what Moscow wants is to send Russian troops to solve the problems that it creates himself. It is very likely soon the more and more internal problems will start happening in those countries, where China has established strong presence. Russia seems to have no other option to stop Chinese expansion in its "near abroad".
On December 10th the summits of two Russian dominated regional organizations – Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), were held in Moscow. Both meetings are the latest in a row of Kremlin's continuing attempts to restore its empire. Moscow has come up with new initiatives to revitalize these otherwise declining structures. It has proposed to sign a free trade agreement within the CIS framework to replace the mountains of useless documents. Russia also called to expand CSTO's role by giving a right to intervene in case of domestic turmoil in member-states.
Moscow's initiatives are nothing more than a tricky adjustment to its flawed and obsolete strategy – to subordinate the CIS states to Russia by tying them up through economic and military means. This time the driving force behind Russian intensified efforts is not its notorious paranoia about the US "encroachment" to its "backyard", but a serious geopolitical challenge it faces as a result of China's rising power.
For nearly 20 years Moscow has been engaged in pointless and misjudged rivalry with the US over the influence in the CIS. The Russian political elite still consider the United States as the main threat to a very existence of their state. Such a paranoid security mindset was partly shaped by Brzezinski's famous book "The Grand Chessboard" that calls for containment of Russia's resurgence by supporting its ex-colonies and dividing Russia itself into three separate economic entities. It is not clear to what extent the US policymakers were influenced by Brzezinski's ideas, but for Russia any US involvement in the CIS meant a "zero-sum game". Kremlin kept barking like a mad dog to protest any US initiative in this part of the world.
Extremely suspicious and heavily occupied with the perceived threat from the United States, Russia lost a sight of China. Beijing masterfully used Moscow's paranoia to advance its own economic interests in post-Soviet space. Now Chinese economic presence in the CIS, especially in Central Asian countries, is much stronger than Russia's. It was too late, when Moscow realized how formidable Chinese challenge has become.
A few people would argue that the rise of China has shaken the world. Its thirst for natural resources and rising export of manufactured products are the most important phenomena, reshaping today's global politics and economy. Chinese strategists are conscious of the fact that secure and stable supply routes of energy, bypassing the US controlled sea lines, is vital to sustain economic growth. Therefore, access to Middle Eastern oil resources through Central Asian land mass remains critical to China's future. Realization of this strategy requires from Beijing building up strong political and economic ties with Central Asia by cutting down the Russian grip of the region.
Beijing has been extremely successful in implementing this plan. It has offered large credits and investments to Central Asia that others could not. China has become the main export market for Central Asian commodities, lessening their dependence on Russia. Bilateral trade has skyrocketed in the last few years.
Any Russian uneasiness about its involvement in Central Asia Beijing was able to soften by giving a lip support to Moscow's anti-American rhetoric. The best illustration of that was an establishment Shanghai Cooperation Organization - a new platform for Moscow to continue barking at the US, assuming that China was on his side. But China regarded Russia like a naughty child, who lacks the maturity to exert self-control.
Nevertheless, China's striking advancement to Central Asia at the peak of global financial crisis came like a "cold shower" for Russia. In 2009 China lent $15 billion dollar to Kazakhstan in exchange for massive shares in its oil fields and mineral resources. The same year Beijing agreed to lend Turkmenistan $4 billion to develop its largest gas field and pledged over $1 billion in investments to build power plants, electricity grids and roads in Tajikistan. In 2010 Beijing signed a deal with Kyrgyzstan to build a $342 million electric grid link. China also announced a loan of $10 billion to Central Asian countries to support them during the global recession.
As a part of its anti-crisis strategy Beijing has announced plans to reduce economic disparities between coastal and inland regions by strengthening the latter's trade and transport links with Central Asia. It coincided with the construction of the world's longest gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China. It was the biggest blow to Russian geopolitical influence in Central Asia, ending Moscow's decades-long monopoly over exporting energy resources from the region. Now just one step left for China to accomplish its main geopolitical ambition – to get a land access to Middle East.
Since financial crisis has totally devastated Russia's resource dependent economy, it finds itself in no position to counter China. In fact, to cover up expanding budget deficit, Moscow itself asked Beijing for multi-billion dollar loan in exchange for long-term oil supplies.
Russia did try various ways to stop Chinese advancement in Central Asia. It has blocked any Beijing's initiatives to create a free trade zone within SCO. Instead Moscow attempted to establish its own free trade area with Central Asian states - Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC). But efforts to bring the trade bloc to life drastically failed. A shortened version of this "adventure", EurAsEC Customs Union, is facing the similar fate. No doubt the expanded version – a free trade agreement within the CIS – may not even see its birth.
Waning Russia's economic, as well as cultural, influence in Central Asia leaves Moscow with only one option – to exercise a military control over the region under the pretext of "ensuring" security. Until 9/11 Moscow had heavily exploited "Taliban threat" to coerce Central Asian states to join the CSTO and host Russian military bases, but today this boogeyman is not working. So what Russia is trying to do now is to provoke Central Asian states against each other. Russian propaganda machine is aggressively circulating this idea.
The most alarming is Russia seems to be willing to provoke a real conflict. There are very serious indicators that the recent ethnic conflict in southern Kyrgyzstan, which left hundreds of people dead and many thousands wounded, was masterminded by Kremlin. Now Russia is using the conflict in Kyrgyzstan as an excuse to strengthen its military presence and political control over Central Asia. It is exactly for this aim Russia is proposing to use CSTO to solve intra-state problems.
It is well-known, how skilful Moscow is in creating internal problems to his neighbors. And now what Moscow wants is to send Russian troops to solve the problems that it creates himself. It is very likely soon the more and more internal problems will start happening in those countries, where China has established strong presence. Russia seems to have no other option to stop Chinese expansion in its "near abroad".
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